Historically, the month of November experiences a seasonal decrease in home sales of almost 10% as compared to October in any given year. As homebuyers and sellers prepare for the upcoming holiday seasons and “hunker down” for the cooler winter months, the usual drop in activity is expected.
In presidential election years, the drop usually equates to around 15% as potential homebuyers become a bit more cautious due to political/election uncertainty.
However, research by BTIG (a research and analysis company) indicates that the loss in sales is certainly temporary and simply defers sales for a period of time. Far more meaningful in consumer confidence is the economy, jobs and interest rates.
In fact, the year AFTER a presidential election is often the busiest home sales year in the four-year political cycle.
Takeaway? As COVID restrictions ease and the economy continues its recovery with historically low interest rates, the market should remain strong through the presidential election period.